Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Emerson Hancock
Seattle Mariners · Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.18 · WHIP 1.00 · K 21% · 10 starts
EMERSON HANCOCK
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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EMERSON
HANCOCK
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam40%96 mph
Sinker21%95 mph
Sweeper15%76 mph
Cutter13%86 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.18
WHIP
1.00
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 25% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .353 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
4.6
IP/GM
4.70
ERA
1.17
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.70 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.