Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Emmet Sheehan
Los Angeles Dodgers · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.56 · WHIP 1.19 · K 26% · 11 starts
EMMET SHEEHAN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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EMMET
SHEEHAN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam46%95 mph
Slider27%87 mph
Changeup15%87 mph
Curveball13%80 mph
Matchup
VS ARI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.56
WHIP
1.19
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 31% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .363 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 17% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
4.6
IP/GM
5.09
ERA
1.30
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
17% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.09 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ARI—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
7 251°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:51 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.