Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ENDY RODRÍGUEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ENDY
RODRÍGUEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
73
Grade B
Matchup
VS Brandon Pfaadt · RHP
89.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
64
VS
ERA
3.58
WHIP
1.29
K%
13%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.4 | 88.0 |
| Barrel% | 14% | 9% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 34% |
| xwOBA | .433 | .277 |
| xSLG | .664 | .382 |
| Whiff% | 33% | 14% |
| Chase% | 27% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.4 avg EV · 14.3% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Pfaadt—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
9 331°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:23 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game