Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Eric Lauer
Los Angeles Dodgers · Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.84 · WHIP 1.05 · K 15% · 11 starts
ERIC LAUER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
ERIC
LAUER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%92 mph
Cutter22%88 mph
Curveball15%76 mph
Changeup13%86 mph
Slider10%83 mph
Matchup
VS SEA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.84
WHIP
1.05
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 40% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .304 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 27% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
5.9
IP/GM
2.76
ERA
0.95
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 27% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.76 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SEA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
5 213°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:38 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.