Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
MLB / Research
Erick Fedde
Chicago White Sox · Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.63 · WHIP 1.19 · K 17% · 12 starts
ERICK FEDDE
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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ERICK
FEDDE
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper37%83 mph
Sinker33%94 mph
Cutter17%93 mph
Changeup12%89 mph
Matchup
VS MIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.63
WHIP
1.19
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .352 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.8
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
1.50
ERA
1.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 1.50 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
9 47°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:58 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.