Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Erick Fedde
Chicago White Sox · Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.18 · WHIP 1.36 · K 19% · 10 starts
ERICK FEDDE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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ERICK
FEDDE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker44%94 mph
Sweeper32%82 mph
Cutter16%93 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.18
WHIP
1.36
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .410 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 56% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
3.7
IP/GM
3.44
ERA
1.20
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 56% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.44 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 8:26 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.