Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ESMERLYN VALDEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ESMERLYN
VALDEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Justin Wrobleski · LHP
90.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
73
VS
ERA
4.13
WHIP
1.01
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 94.8 | 91.9 |
| Barrel% | 29% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 71% | 46% |
| xwOBA | .494 | .363 |
| xSLG | .895 | .538 |
| Whiff% | 42% | 19% |
| Chase% | 29% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
94.8 avg EV · 28.6% barrel · 71% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Wrobleski—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
7 263°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+7%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:36 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game