Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ESMERLYN VALDEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ESMERLYN
VALDEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
77
Grade B+
Matchup
VS Jameson Taillon · RHP
85.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
99
VS
ERA
6.02
WHIP
1.34
K%
21%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.8 | 90.6 |
| Barrel% | 31% | 17% |
| Hard Hit% | 52% | 50% |
| xwOBA | .557 | .420 |
| xSLG | .953 | .662 |
| Whiff% | 34% | 21% |
| Chase% | 23% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.8 avg EV · 30.8% barrel · 52% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Taillon0
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
7 255°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:28 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game