Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Eury Pérez
Miami Marlins · Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.77 · WHIP 0.98 · K 27% · 10 starts
EURY PÉREZ
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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EURY
PÉREZ
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker28%98 mph
4-Seam26%98 mph
Slider19%89 mph
Sweeper13%85 mph
Changeup7%91 mph
Curveball6%81 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.77
WHIP
0.98
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .281 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.4
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
1.88
ERA
1.17
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.88 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
5 80°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-14%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.