Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Eury Pérez
Miami Marlins · Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.62 · WHIP 1.06 · K 29% · 11 starts
EURY PÉREZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
EURY
PÉREZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam38%98 mph
Sweeper17%83 mph
Sinker16%97 mph
Slider15%88 mph
Changeup10%90 mph
Matchup
VS CLE LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.62
WHIP
1.06
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 27% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .195 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 25% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.4
K/GM
5.4
IP/GM
1.33
ERA
0.81
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 25% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.33 ERA · 32% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CLE—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.