Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
EZEQUIEL TOVAR
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
EZEQUIEL
TOVAR
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
35
Grade F
Matchup
VS Brady Singer · RHP
88.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
26
VS
ERA
4.03
WHIP
1.34
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 81.3 | 92.5 |
| Barrel% | 6% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 22% | 55% |
| xwOBA | .237 | .391 |
| xSLG | .341 | .525 |
| Whiff% | 23% | 29% |
| Chase% | 49% | 23% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
81.3 avg EV · 6.3% barrel · 22% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Singer—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
14 129°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:06 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game