Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Framber Valdez
Detroit Tigers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.02 · WHIP 1.51 · K 15% · 11 starts
FRAMBER VALDEZ
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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FRAMBER
VALDEZ
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker42%93 mph
Curveball31%78 mph
Changeup18%89 mph
4-Seam6%94 mph
Slider4%85 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.02
WHIP
1.51
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 13% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 5.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 25% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .361 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 48% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.6
K/GM
6.1
IP/GM
4.15
ERA
1.45
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 48% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.15 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
69°
Wind
6 183°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-6%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:10 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.