Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Framber Valdez
Detroit Tigers · Athletics vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.78 · WHIP 1.26 · K 19% · 11 starts
FRAMBER VALDEZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
FRAMBER
VALDEZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker44%94 mph
Curveball26%79 mph
Changeup21%89 mph
4-Seam5%95 mph
Matchup
VS OAK LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.78
WHIP
1.26
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 14% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .331 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.2
K/GM
6.0
IP/GM
3.30
ERA
1.27
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.30 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs OAK—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
7 270°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:01 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.