Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
FRANCISCO ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
FRANCISCO
ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
52
Grade C-
Matchup
VS — · —
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
52
VS
Rookie / call-up — no 2026 MLB starts logged yet. Season ERA / WHIP / K% will populate after this pitcher's next outing.
Statcast Matchup
No recent Statcast on file for this pitcher yet.
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
97.8 avg EV · 50.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Pitcher—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
74°
Wind
13 170°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:58 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game