Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
FRANCISCO ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
FRANCISCO
ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
63
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Eury Pérez · RHP
92.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
71
VS
ERA
4.07
WHIP
1.42
K%
24%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.7 | 90.0 |
| Barrel% | 14% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 49% | 38% |
| xwOBA | .431 | .386 |
| xSLG | .653 | .597 |
| Whiff% | 40% | 29% |
| Chase% | 33% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.7 avg EV · 14.3% barrel · 49% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Pérez1
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:17 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game