Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
FRANCISCO ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
FRANCISCO
ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Roki Sasaki · RHP
93.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
77
VS
ERA
4.82
WHIP
1.24
K%
24%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.7 | 89.9 |
| Barrel% | 20% | 19% |
| Hard Hit% | 41% | 45% |
| xwOBA | .426 | .379 |
| xSLG | .666 | .587 |
| Whiff% | 32% | 22% |
| Chase% | 31% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.7 avg EV · 20.5% barrel · 41% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sasaki—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
10 170°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:44 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game