Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
FRANCISCO LINDOR
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
FRANCISCO
LINDOR
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
52
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Jared Jones · RHP
93.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
59
VS
ERA
3.86
WHIP
1.01
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.1 | 88.0 |
| Barrel% | 18% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 45% | 42% |
| xwOBA | .390 | .333 |
| xSLG | .604 | .504 |
| Whiff% | 22% | 24% |
| Chase% | 29% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.1 avg EV · 17.9% barrel · 45% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Jones0
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
6 232°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:22 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game