Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
FREDDY FERMIN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
FREDDY
FERMIN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
57
Grade C
Matchup
VS Nick Lodolo · LHP
89.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
79
VS
ERA
5.05
WHIP
1.58
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.1 | 89.5 |
| Barrel% | 14% | 16% |
| Hard Hit% | 37% | 43% |
| xwOBA | .368 | .483 |
| xSLG | .496 | .737 |
| Whiff% | 32% | 25% |
| Chase% | 40% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.1 avg EV · 14.3% barrel · 37% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Lodolo0
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
3 315°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+14%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:24 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game