Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
FREDDY FERMIN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
FREDDY
FERMIN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
41
Grade D
Matchup
VS Randy Dobnak · RHP
88.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
33
VS
ERA
1.86
WHIP
1.34
K%
10%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 80.5 | 90.1 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 21% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .186 | .338 |
| xSLG | .248 | .445 |
| Whiff% | 12% | 10% |
| Chase% | 27% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
80.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 21% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Dobnak—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
90°
Wind
8 207°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:43 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game