Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
GABRIEL ARIAS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
GABRIEL
ARIAS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Brandon Sproat · RHP
93.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
57
VS
ERA
5.63
WHIP
1.42
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 98.1 | 93.5 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 100% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .796 | .252 |
| xSLG | .974 | .347 |
| Whiff% | 56% | 21% |
| Chase% | 33% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
98.1 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 100% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sproat—
Tonight's Park
HR
+8%
Hits
-6%
2B
-17%
3B
-9%
K
+11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:17 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game