GABRIEL HUGHES

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

GABRIEL

HUGHES

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam52%92 mph

Curveball13%79 mph

Changeup11%87 mph

Sinker10%92 mph

Slider8%86 mph

Sweeper7%85 mph

Matchup

VS CLE LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

55

Average

projected lineup

VS

ERA

6.69

WHIP

1.38

K%

20%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	17%	25%
SwStr%	7.8%	11%
Chase%	25%	28%
xwOBA-a	.360	.315
Barrel%-a	8%	8%
HardHit%-a	28%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

3.8

K/GM

4.7

IP/GM

8.87

ERA

1.54

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

20% season K rate

Contact Suppression

8% barrel · 28% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-friendly park · air suppressing HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 8 starts

0 of 8 starts over

Last 5: 8.87 ERA · 18% K

1

7

6

5

2

7

3

2

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs CLE—

Tonight's Park

HR

+7%

Hits

+16%

2B

+17%

3B

+103%

K

-8%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

78°

Wind

5 74°

Rain

100%

HR Adj

-10%

K Adj

-5%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 3:27 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.