GAGE JUMP

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

GAGE

JUMP

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam48%96 mph

Slider24%87 mph

Curveball13%83 mph

Changeup7%88 mph

Sweeper6%84 mph

Matchup

VS WSH LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

38

Bad

projected lineup

VS

ERA

3.51

WHIP

1.29

K%

24%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	22%	25%
SwStr%	10.9%	11%
Chase%	32%	28%
xwOBA-a	.417	.315
Barrel%-a	14%	8%
HardHit%-a	51%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

5.8

K/GM

5.1

IP/GM

3.91

ERA

1.46

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

24% season K rate

Contact Suppression

14% barrel · 51% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-friendly park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 9 starts

0 of 9 starts over

Last 5: 3.91 ERA · 26% K

5

5

3

6

7

9

5

1

7

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs WSH—

Tonight's Park

HR

+4%

Hits

+3%

2B

+5%

3B

0%

K

-2%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

79°

Wind

13 204°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+22%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 1:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.