Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
GARRETT STUBBS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
GARRETT
STUBBS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Sandy Alcantara · RHP
92.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
14
VS
ERA
3.29
WHIP
1.13
K%
21%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 75.4 | 89.1 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 36% |
| xwOBA | .244 | .319 |
| xSLG | .315 | .472 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 20% |
| Chase% | 33% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
75.4 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Alcantara0
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:22 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game