Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
George Kirby
Seattle Mariners · Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.70 · WHIP 1.53 · K 23% · 10 starts
GEORGE KIRBY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GEORGE
KIRBY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper37%87 mph
Sinker27%97 mph
4-Seam21%97 mph
Knuckle-Curve7%84 mph
Changeup6%89 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.70
WHIP
1.53
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .394 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
3.25
ERA
1.41
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.25 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.