Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
George Kirby
Seattle Mariners · Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.90 · WHIP 1.37 · K 19% · 10 starts
GEORGE KIRBY
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GEORGE
KIRBY
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam27%97 mph
Sweeper25%88 mph
Sinker20%97 mph
Knuckle-Curve13%84 mph
Splitter7%87 mph
Cutter5%92 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
61
VS
ERA
3.90
WHIP
1.37
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 38% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .328 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
4.23
ERA
1.48
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.23 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
10 180°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:43 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.