Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
GRANT MCCRAY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
GRANT
MCCRAY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Michael Lorenzen · RHP
88.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
8
VS
ERA
6.38
WHIP
1.73
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 84.8 | 89.2 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 42% |
| xwOBA | .112 | .303 |
| xSLG | .134 | .426 |
| Whiff% | 33% | 20% |
| Chase% | 50% | 27% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
84.8 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Lorenzen—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
10 253°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:58 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game