Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Grayson Rodriguez
Los Angeles Angels · Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 7.55 · WHIP 1.74 · K 16% · 7 starts
GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GRAYSON
RODRIGUEZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam64%96 mph
Matchup
VS MIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
7.55
WHIP
1.74
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 10% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 4.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 24% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .452 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 25% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 50% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
6.23
ERA
1.57
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
25% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 7 starts
0 of 7 starts over
Last 5: 6.23 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
6 255°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:08 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.