Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Hayden Wesneski
Houston Astros · Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · Pitcher
ERA 4.76 · WHIP 1.59 · K 16% · 1 starts

HAYDEN WESNESKI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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K
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Win
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ER
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H
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HAYDEN
WESNESKI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper35%81 mph
Matchup
VS TOR LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
53
projected lineup
VS
ERA
4.76
WHIP
1.59
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 42% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .472 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 50% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
5.7
IP/GM
4.76
ERA
1.59
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 1 starts
0 of 1 starts over
Last 5: 4.76 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TOR—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
11 167°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+1%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:24 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
