Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Heriberto Hernández
Miami Marlins · Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals · in lineup
MG Score
59
C
Tonight's Matchup
98
Matchup
Smash spot
vs Richard Lovelady · LHP · 87.4 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.60
WHIP
1.00
K%
24%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
93.2
74.9
Barrel%
19.2%
12.5%
Hard Hit%
54%
13%
xwOBA
.638
.824
xSLG
1.019
1.201
Whiff%
29%
0%
Chase%
36%
20%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Richard Lovelady: 1 PA · Low sample
AB
1
AVG
.100
OPS
5.000
HR
1
H
1
K
0
Tonight's Park · Nationals Park
Neutral parkHR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
93.2
Barrel%
19.2%
Hard Hit%
54%
Sweet Spot%
50%
xwOBA
0.638
xSLG
1.019
Recent Games
Last 5
80%
4/5 games
Last 10
70%
7/10 games
Last 20
50%
10/20 games
Last 30
47%
14/30 games
AVG
.348
OBP
.348
SLG
.739
OPS
1.087
HR
3
RBI
9
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Washington Nationals | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/31 | New York Mets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5/26 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/24 | New York Mets | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/21 | Atlanta Braves | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/19 | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 5/17 | Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/16 | Tampa Bay Rays | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Heriberto Hernández
Miami Marlins · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
90.0 mph
Avg LA
11.8°
Hard-hit %
44%
Barrel %
21%
Outcomes (68 balls)
Home Run
3Triple
1Double
0Single
13Out
51Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/24/2026 - 6/1/2026
Games: 5
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
CPerformance Score
53Exit Velo
88.4 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
44.4%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
17.4%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.579
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
22.2%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: xwOBA
Areas for Improvement: Sweet Spot%, Exit Velo
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
110.6 mph
Launch Angle
13.6°
xBA
0.364
xSLG
1.030
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
44.4%
Fly Ball%
44.4%
Line Drive%
N/A
Pop Up%
11.1%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.