Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
HERIBERTO HERNÁNDEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
HERIBERTO
HERNÁNDEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
60
Grade C
Matchup
VS Randy Dobnak · RHP
87.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
69
VS
ERA
1.92
WHIP
1.37
K%
15%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.0 | 86.5 |
| Barrel% | 17% | 6% |
| Hard Hit% | 39% | 36% |
| xwOBA | .447 | .355 |
| xSLG | .693 | .465 |
| Whiff% | 28% | 19% |
| Chase% | 23% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.0 avg EV · 16.9% barrel · 39% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Dobnak—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
98°
Wind
17 200°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:25 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game