Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Hunter Brown
Houston Astros · Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.53 · WHIP 1.20 · K 24% · 10 starts
HUNTER BROWN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
HUNTER
BROWN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam34%96 mph
Sinker27%96 mph
Knuckle-Curve22%84 mph
Changeup10%88 mph
Slider7%91 mph
Matchup
VS TOR LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.53
WHIP
1.20
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 30% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .323 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.0
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
3.08
ERA
1.10
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.08 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TOR—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
8 114°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-7%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.