Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Hunter Dobbins
St. Louis Cardinals · St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.40 · WHIP 1.33 · K 23% · 7 starts
HUNTER DOBBINS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
HUNTER
DOBBINS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam40%94 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.40
WHIP
1.33
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 20% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .311 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
4.1
IP/GM
4.35
ERA
1.31
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 7 starts
0 of 7 starts over
Last 5: 4.35 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
85°
Wind
10 301°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:42 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.