Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ian Seymour
Tampa Bay Rays · Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.65 · WHIP 1.05 · K 30% · 10 starts
IAN SEYMOUR
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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IAN
SEYMOUR
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Changeup29%84 mph
Sweeper27%81 mph
4-Seam26%92 mph
Sinker11%91 mph
Matchup
VS SEA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.65
WHIP
1.05
K%
30%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 35% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .340 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.6
K/GM
4.9
IP/GM
2.92
ERA
0.85
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
30% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.92 ERA · 35% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SEA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:58 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.