Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Ian Seymour
Tampa Bay Rays · New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.41 · WHIP 1.22 · K 31% · 10 starts
IAN SEYMOUR
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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IAN
SEYMOUR
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam31%91 mph
Changeup28%83 mph
Sinker15%90 mph
Sweeper15%83 mph
Slider10%83 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
44
VS
ERA
4.41
WHIP
1.22
K%
31%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 39% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .445 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 17% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.6
K/GM
5.7
IP/GM
3.77
ERA
1.22
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
31% season K rate
Contact Suppression
17% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.77 ERA · 31% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:05 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.