Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ISAAC COLLINS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ISAAC
COLLINS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
64
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Michael King · RHP
88.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
37
VS
ERA
4.11
WHIP
1.21
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.1 | 80.6 |
| Barrel% | 9% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 43% | 18% |
| xwOBA | .364 | .342 |
| xSLG | .499 | .428 |
| Whiff% | 10% | 23% |
| Chase% | 22% | 44% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.1 avg EV · 8.9% barrel · 43% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs King—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
88°
Wind
10 200°
Rain
20%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-7%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game