Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Boston Red Sox · Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
MG Score
55
C
Tonight's Matchup
41
Matchup
Tough matchup
vs Shane Baz · RHP · 90.3 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.01
WHIP
1.22
K%
22%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
86.8
96.5
Barrel%
5.9%
11.1%
Hard Hit%
38%
56%
xwOBA
.357
.358
xSLG
.464
.475
Whiff%
16%
21%
Chase%
28%
33%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Shane Baz: 4 PA · Low sample
AB
4
AVG
.250
OPS
.500
HR
0
H
1
K
1
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
86.8
Barrel%
5.9%
Hard Hit%
38%
Sweet Spot%
41%
xwOBA
0.357
xSLG
0.464
Recent Games
Last 5
100%
5/5 games
Last 10
70%
7/10 games
Last 20
50%
10/20 games
Last 30
50%
15/30 games
AVG
.379
OBP
.455
SLG
.517
OPS
.972
HR
1
RBI
7
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Cleveland Guardians | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Cleveland Guardians | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Atlanta Braves | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5/24 | Minnesota Twins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Kansas City Royals | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Boston Red Sox · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
80.7 mph
Avg LA
8.3°
Hard-hit %
29%
Barrel %
5%
Outcomes (41 balls)
Home Run
0Triple
0Double
2Single
11Out
28Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 5/31/2026
Games: 8
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
BPerformance Score
66Exit Velo
90.5 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
47.8%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
24.2%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.386
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
43.5%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: Sweet Spot%
Areas for Improvement: Chase%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
104.4 mph
Launch Angle
12.9°
xBA
0.377
xSLG
0.518
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
43.5%
Fly Ball%
13.0%
Line Drive%
30.4%
Pop Up%
13.0%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.