Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Jack Dreyer
Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.82 · WHIP 1.50 · K 12% · 10 starts
JACK DREYER
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JACK
DREYER
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%94 mph
Slider28%88 mph
Curveball21%80 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
71
VS
ERA
4.82
WHIP
1.50
K%
12%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .394 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 48% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.6
K/GM
1.1
IP/GM
5.06
ERA
1.31
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
12% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 48% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 5.06 ERA · 13% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
60°
Wind
8 218°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
+4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.