Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jack Perkins
Athletics · Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 7.71 · WHIP 1.47 · K 28% · 10 starts
JACK PERKINS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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JACK
PERKINS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam31%95 mph
Sweeper30%86 mph
Changeup23%89 mph
Cutter9%92 mph
Matchup
VS ARI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
41
VS
ERA
7.71
WHIP
1.47
K%
28%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .430 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 49% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
7.89
ERA
1.57
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
28% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 49% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 7.89 ERA · 29% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ARI—
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:10 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.