JACK PERKINS

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

JACK

PERKINS

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam41%96 mph

Sweeper35%86 mph

Changeup16%90 mph

Matchup

VS HOU LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

VS

ERA

7.92

WHIP

1.66

K%

25%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	25%	25%
SwStr%	11.9%	11%
Chase%	33%	28%
xwOBA-a	.290	.315
Barrel%-a	7%	8%
HardHit%-a	26%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

6.0

K/GM

5.2

IP/GM

5.88

ERA

1.19

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

25% season K rate

Contact Suppression

7% barrel · 26% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-friendly park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

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Model Prob

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Fair Odds

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EDGE —

Rate Breakdown · Over Rate by Split

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Overall

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Home

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Last 5

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vs HOU

Tonight's Park

HR

+4%

Hits

0%

2B

-4%

3B

-14%

K

0%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

83°

Wind

9 176°

Rain

100%

HR Adj

+2%

K Adj

-9%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 12:30 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.