Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Jack Ralston
Miami Marlins · Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.35 · WHIP 1.45 · K 28% · 10 starts
JACK RALSTON
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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JACK
RALSTON
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Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Splitter51%82 mph
4-Seam29%94 mph
Slider19%85 mph
Matchup
VS ATL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.35
WHIP
1.45
K%
28%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 15% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 5.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 16% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .418 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 18% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.6
K/GM
1.2
IP/GM
6.00
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
28% season K rate
Contact Suppression
18% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 6.00 ERA · 29% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ATL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:59 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.