Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jacob deGrom
Texas Rangers · Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.71 · WHIP 1.02 · K 30% · 11 starts
JACOB DEGROM
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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JACOB
DEGROM
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam43%97 mph
Slider38%91 mph
Changeup13%89 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.71
WHIP
1.02
K%
30%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 32% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .334 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.6
K/GM
6.0
IP/GM
4.20
ERA
1.07
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
30% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.20 ERA · 32% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.