Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JACOB GONZALEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JACOB
GONZALEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
43
Grade D
Matchup
VS Gavin Williams · RHP
90.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
23
VS
ERA
3.88
WHIP
1.12
K%
29%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.9 | 86.9 |
| Barrel% | 7% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 44% | 38% |
| xwOBA | .344 | .303 |
| xSLG | .458 | .445 |
| Whiff% | 18% | 24% |
| Chase% | 36% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.9 avg EV · 7.3% barrel · 44% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Williams—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
3 40°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:09 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game