JACOB LOPEZ

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

JACOB

LOPEZ

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam40%91 mph

Slider32%76 mph

Matchup

VS CHW LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

VS

ERA

6.64

WHIP

1.67

K%

16%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	21%	25%
SwStr%	9.5%	11%
Chase%	27%	28%
xwOBA-a	.418	.315
Barrel%-a	11%	8%
HardHit%-a	22%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

2.6

K/GM

3.0

IP/GM

9.60

ERA

2.00

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

16% season K rate

Contact Suppression

11% barrel · 22% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 11 starts

0 of 11 starts over

Last 5: 9.60 ERA · 18% K

5

1

1

5

5

2

2

3

3

4

1

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs CHW—

Tonight's Park

HR

-5%

Hits

-2%

2B

-9%

3B

-28%

K

+1%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

83°

Wind

5 97°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+2%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 3:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.