Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jacob Waguespack
Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.68 · WHIP 0.89 · K 13% · 11 starts
JACOB WAGUESPACK
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JACOB
WAGUESPACK
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam40%93 mph
Cutter35%87 mph
Changeup19%84 mph
Matchup
VS KC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.68
WHIP
0.89
K%
13%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .286 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 34% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.4
K/GM
1.5
IP/GM
4.91
ERA
0.95
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
13% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 34% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.91 ERA · 7% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs KC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
6 70°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-14%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:19 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.