Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JACOB WILSON
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JACOB
WILSON
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
29
Grade F
Matchup
VS Patrick Sandoval · LHP
90.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
12
VS
ERA
3.21
WHIP
1.64
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 82.7 | 82.3 |
| Barrel% | 5% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 25% | 24% |
| xwOBA | .314 | .242 |
| xSLG | .430 | .307 |
| Whiff% | 9% | 10% |
| Chase% | 42% | 19% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
82.7 avg EV · 4.8% barrel · 25% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sandoval—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
12 198°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:00 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game