Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jake Bennett
Boston Red Sox · Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.64 · WHIP 0.94 · K 19% · 8 starts
JAKE BENNETT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
JAKE
BENNETT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam35%93 mph
Sinker26%93 mph
Changeup26%84 mph
Sweeper7%80 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
84
VS
ERA
2.64
WHIP
0.94
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 41% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .295 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.4
K/GM
6.5
IP/GM
1.39
ERA
0.68
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 8 starts
0 of 8 starts over
Last 5: 1.39 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
67°
Wind
11 222°
Rain
27%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.