Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics

MLB / Research

Jake Irvin

Washington Nationals · Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals · Pitcher

ERA 5.20 · WHIP 1.38 · K 22% · 11 starts

Mongoose Bets
JAKE IRVIN
K@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
Jake Irvin
JAKE
IRVIN
K
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam34%93 mph
Curveball22%78 mph
Changeup15%87 mph
Sinker12%92 mph
Cutter9%91 mph
Sweeper8%82 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.20
WHIP
1.38
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
 PitcherMLB Avg
Whiff%19%25%
SwStr%8.9%11%
Chase%24%28%
xwOBA-a.383.315
Barrel%-a10%8%
HardHit%-a51%39%
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
5.0
IP/GM
4.68
ERA
1.56
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 51% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
Model Prob
Fair Odds
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.68 ERA · 21% K
6
7
1
3
4
6
4
6
5
3
6
Season
Home
Last 5
vs LAA
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
85°
Wind
6 260°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:09 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.