Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jake Irvin
Washington Nationals · Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · Pitcher
ERA 5.10 · WHIP 1.28 · K 23% · 10 starts
JAKE IRVIN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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JAKE
IRVIN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Curveball30%77 mph
Sinker29%92 mph
4-Seam23%92 mph
Cutter9%88 mph
Sweeper6%81 mph
Matchup
VS PHI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
16
projected lineup
VS
ERA
5.10
WHIP
1.28
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 17% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .466 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 24% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
4.4
IP/GM
6.55
ERA
1.36
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
24% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 6.55 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PHI—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
4 201°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+0%
K Adj
-11%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:32 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.