Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
JAKOB MARSEE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JAKOB
MARSEE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
63
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Will Dion · LHP
83.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
25
VS
ERA
2.25
WHIP
0.80
K%
32%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.7 | 85.1 |
| Barrel% | 3% | 17% |
| Hard Hit% | 42% | 36% |
| xwOBA | .326 | .295 |
| xSLG | .444 | .487 |
| Whiff% | 15% | 29% |
| Chase% | 14% | 34% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.7 avg EV · 3.4% barrel · 42% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Dion0
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
5 133°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-15%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:26 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game