Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JAKOB MARSEE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JAKOB
MARSEE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
32
Grade F
Matchup
VS Logan Henderson · RHP
85.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
15
VS
ERA
3.18
WHIP
0.99
K%
31%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.2 | 89.0 |
| Barrel% | 6% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 26% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .288 | .300 |
| xSLG | .407 | .412 |
| Whiff% | 15% | 22% |
| Chase% | 24% | 10% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.2 avg EV · 6.2% barrel · 26% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Henderson—
Tonight's Park
HR
+8%
Hits
-6%
2B
-17%
3B
-9%
K
+11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:12 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game