JAMESON TAILLON

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

JAMESON

TAILLON

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Changeup32%84 mph

Matchup

VS PIT LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

36

Bad

projected lineup

VS

ERA

6.02

WHIP

1.34

K%

21%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	21%	25%
SwStr%	9.3%	11%
Chase%	31%	28%
xwOBA-a	.420	.315
Barrel%-a	17%	8%
HardHit%-a	50%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

4.6

K/GM

4.3

IP/GM

6.33

ERA

1.59

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

21% season K rate

Contact Suppression

17% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Pitcher's park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 6.33 ERA · 24% K

4

6

5

4

2

5

4

6

2

6

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs PIT—

Tonight's Park

HR

-20%

Hits

+1%

2B

+12%

3B

-23%

K

-4%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

78°

Wind

7 255°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+8%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 11:27 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.