Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Janson Junk
Miami Marlins · Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.89 · WHIP 1.33 · K 17% · 10 starts
JANSON JUNK
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JANSON
JUNK
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam46%94 mph
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
64
VS
ERA
4.89
WHIP
1.33
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 10% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 3.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 19% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .274 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.2
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
7.09
ERA
1.69
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 7.09 ERA · 17% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
98°
Wind
4 261°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+19%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.