Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Jared Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates · San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates · Pitcher
ERA 4.34 · WHIP 1.20 · K 29% · 10 starts
JARED JONES
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JARED
JONES
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%98 mph
Slider34%89 mph
Changeup12%92 mph
Curveball7%86 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.34
WHIP
1.20
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .432 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.0
K/GM
4.1
IP/GM
7.40
ERA
1.94
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 7.40 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
9 160°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:59 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.