Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JARED YOUNG
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JARED
YOUNG
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
61
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Janson Junk · RHP
89.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
51
VS
ERA
5.51
WHIP
1.46
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.1 | 90.3 |
| Barrel% | 11% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 42% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .337 | .351 |
| xSLG | .462 | .515 |
| Whiff% | 19% | 12% |
| Chase% | 27% | 26% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.1 avg EV · 11.1% barrel · 42% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Junk—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
9 170°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:40 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game