Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JARREN DURAN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JARREN
DURAN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
29
Grade F
Matchup
VS Griffin Jax · RHP
92.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
46
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VS
ERA
3.26
WHIP
1.11
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 84.5 | 86.4 |
| Barrel% | 12% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 29% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .359 | .454 |
| xSLG | .522 | .630 |
| Whiff% | 30% | 24% |
| Chase% | 33% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
84.5 avg EV · 12.2% barrel · 29% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Jax0
Tonight's Park
HR
—
Hits
—
2B
—
3B
—
K
—
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
68°
Wind
4 110°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game