Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
MLB / Research
Javier Assad
Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.29 · WHIP 1.27 · K 17% · 13 starts
JAVIER ASSAD
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
JAVIER
ASSAD
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker57%94 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.29
WHIP
1.27
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 21% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .319 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 48% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.6
K/GM
2.7
IP/GM
4.61
ERA
1.17
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 48% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 4.61 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:56 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.