Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Javier Assad
Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.56 · WHIP 1.12 · K 19% · 11 starts
JAVIER ASSAD
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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JAVIER
ASSAD
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker49%94 mph
4-Seam17%94 mph
Cutter10%90 mph
Matchup
VS STL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.56
WHIP
1.12
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 12% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 5.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 23% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .373 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
3.6
IP/GM
1.50
ERA
1.28
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.50 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs STL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
7 115°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:49 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.