Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JAVIER BÁEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JAVIER
BÁEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
41
Grade D
Matchup
VS Trevor Rogers · LHP
88.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
19
VS
ERA
2.21
WHIP
1.03
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.9 | 88.2 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 25% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .455 | .328 |
| xSLG | .568 | .413 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 31% |
| Chase% | 17% | 62% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.9 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 25% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Rogers0
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
12 18°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:43 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game