Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jeffrey Springs
Athletics · Athletics vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 7.54 · WHIP 1.61 · K 18% · 10 starts
JEFFREY SPRINGS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
JEFFREY
SPRINGS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%92 mph
Slider28%84 mph
Changeup24%79 mph
Matchup
VS DET LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
7.54
WHIP
1.61
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .422 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
3.9
IP/GM
10.24
ERA
1.86
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 10.24 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs DET—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
7 270°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.