Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JEREMIAH JACKSON
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JEREMIAH
JACKSON
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
37
Grade F
Matchup
VS Payton Tolle · LHP
93.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
44
VS
ERA
3.71
WHIP
1.24
K%
25%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.1 | 89.7 |
| Barrel% | 17% | 29% |
| Hard Hit% | 26% | 43% |
| xwOBA | .313 | .363 |
| xSLG | .446 | .547 |
| Whiff% | 23% | 47% |
| Chase% | 41% | 41% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.1 avg EV · 17.4% barrel · 26% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Tolle—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
11 189°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+17%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game