Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Jesús Luzardo
Philadelphia Phillies · Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.11 · WHIP 0.87 · K 33% · 10 starts
JESÚS LUZARDO
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JESÚS
LUZARDO
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper40%86 mph
4-Seam26%97 mph
Sinker18%95 mph
Changeup16%85 mph
Matchup
VS SEA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.11
WHIP
0.87
K%
33%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .356 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.4
K/GM
5.7
IP/GM
1.59
ERA
0.92
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
33% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.59 ERA · 33% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SEA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
-12%
2B
-15%
3B
-35%
K
+18%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:26 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.