Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jesús Luzardo
Philadelphia Phillies · Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.00 · WHIP 1.09 · K 29% · 12 starts
JESÚS LUZARDO
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
JESÚS
LUZARDO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper41%87 mph
Sinker26%96 mph
4-Seam19%97 mph
Changeup15%86 mph
Matchup
VS CIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.00
WHIP
1.09
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 32% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .273 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 1% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
8.0
K/GM
5.1
IP/GM
1.05
ERA
0.90
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
1% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 1.05 ERA · 39% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
88°
Wind
6 116°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.