Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JIM JARVIS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JIM
JARVIS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Nolan McLean · RHP
91.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
17
VS
ERA
4.34
WHIP
1.25
K%
25%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.1 | 85.7 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 33% | 30% |
| xwOBA | .065 | .349 |
| xSLG | .075 | .483 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 25% |
| Chase% | 50% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.1 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs McLean—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
7 282°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:58 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game