Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JIM JARVIS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JIM
JARVIS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade D
Matchup
VS Taj Bradley · RHP
93.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
28
VS
ERA
3.81
WHIP
1.25
K%
27%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.5 | 89.2 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 38% | 44% |
| xwOBA | .290 | .352 |
| xSLG | .363 | .510 |
| Whiff% | 16% | 19% |
| Chase% | 27% | 25% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 38% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Bradley—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
70°
Wind
4 321°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:45 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game