Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JJ BLEDAY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JJ
BLEDAY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
58
Grade C
Matchup
VS Gabriel Hughes · RHP
90.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
24
VS
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.00
K%
23%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.5 | 89.0 |
| Barrel% | 9% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 29% | 13% |
| xwOBA | .344 | .262 |
| xSLG | .472 | .350 |
| Whiff% | 28% | 18% |
| Chase% | 21% | 37% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.5 avg EV · 9.1% barrel · 29% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Hughes—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
14 129°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game