Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
JOC PEDERSON
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOC
PEDERSON
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
56
Grade C
Matchup
VS Gage Jump · LHP
91.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
62
VS
ERA
6.14
WHIP
1.74
K%
25%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 93.8 | 85.8 |
| Barrel% | 12% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 60% | 31% |
| xwOBA | .326 | .380 |
| xSLG | .531 | .523 |
| Whiff% | 28% | 22% |
| Chase% | 31% | 27% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
93.8 avg EV · 11.6% barrel · 60% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Jump—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:23 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game