Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOC PEDERSON
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOC
PEDERSON
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
65
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Chris Sale · LHP
88.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
83
VS
ERA
2.25
WHIP
1.27
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.8 | 92.4 |
| Barrel% | 16% | 20% |
| Hard Hit% | 53% | 20% |
| xwOBA | .468 | .469 |
| xSLG | .741 | .742 |
| Whiff% | 29% | 32% |
| Chase% | 34% | 35% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.8 avg EV · 15.6% barrel · 53% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sale—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
5 285°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game